Pending home sales hit Redfin's record low, down in all 50 big metros
Contracts fell in every one of the 50 most populous metros for the second week in a row, with mortgage rates at 7.4% and the typical monthly payment near a record. Denver was among the five steepest drops.
The numbers
Pending home sales, the homes that went under contract, fell to 281,749 in the four weeks ending October 18, 2026, Redfin reported on October 22. That is down 14.4% from a year earlier and 1.9% from the week before, and it is the lowest count in Redfin's records. Contracts fell in all 50 of the most populous U.S. metros, the second week in a row with no metro in positive territory.
The cause is the same one behind NAR's record-low September Pending Home Sales Index: mortgage rates. Redfin put the weekly average rate at 7.4%, which pushes the typical monthly housing payment to $2,796, up 10.4% from a year earlier and the second-highest level in its records.
Where contracts fell the most
| Metro | Pending sales vs a year earlier |
|---|---|
| Seattle | -28.8% |
| San Diego | -25.4% |
| Atlanta | -23.8% |
| Denver | -21.0% |
| Las Vegas | -20.6% |
| United States | -14.4% |
Source: Redfin housing market update, four weeks ending October 18, 2026, published October 22, 2026.
Supply is not the problem
Sellers have not pulled back nearly as much as buyers. Redfin counted 354,412 new listings (down 2.7% from a year earlier) and 1,507,161 active listings (up 2.1%). Homes took a median of 50 days to go under contract, and the median sale price was $390,614, up just 0.2% from a year earlier. The typical home sold for 98.4% of its final list price. More homes, fewer contracts and flat prices add up to a buyer's market in most metros.
Denver, up close
Denver's 21% drop in contracts was the fourth-largest of the 50 metros. For the city-by-city picture along the Front Range (homes for sale, price cuts, days on market, updated daily), see the Denver real estate statistics from The Kenna Group at Keller Williams DTC, and our Colorado market statistics.
Down payment help keeps growing
One bright spot for buyers who are still shopping: Down Payment Resource counted 2,746 homeownership programs nationwide in the second quarter of 2026, 67 more than the first quarter, and 77% of them were active and funded. Many buyers who think they need 20% down qualify for a program. In Colorado, start with the CHFA down payment assistance guide.
What to tell your clients
Sellers: buyers have more homes to choose from and fewer of them are writing offers. Price to the contracts being written now, not to spring. Offering to pay for a rate buydown often does more for a buyer's payment than a price cut of the same size.
Buyers: fewer competing offers means room to negotiate on price, repairs, closing costs and a rate buydown. Run the payment, not the rate: try the Colorado mortgage calculator with today's Colorado mortgage rates.
Your pipeline: the buyers who are writing contracts right now are serious. Call them first, and keep your listings' price conversations on a weekly schedule.
Today's numbers
Where the market stands now
The story above is dated October 23, 2026. These update on their own as the publishers release new data.
Questions
Quick answers
How low are pending home sales in October 2026?
Redfin counted 281,749 pending sales in the four weeks ending October 18, 2026, down 14.4% from a year earlier and the lowest in its records. Contracts fell in all 50 of the most populous metros.
How much did pending sales fall in Denver?
Denver's pending sales were down 21% from a year earlier in the four weeks ending October 18, 2026, the fourth-largest drop among the 50 biggest metros, per Redfin.
Is it a buyer's market?
In most metros, yes. Active listings were up 2.1% from a year earlier while contracts fell 14.4%, the median home took 50 days to go under contract, and the median sale price was up only 0.2% (Redfin).
Sources
- Redfin, “Housing market update: pending home sales sink as rates stay high (four weeks ending October 18, 2026),” October 22, 2026. www.redfin.com
- Down Payment Resource via MBA Newslink, “Down Payment Assistance Programs Increase Again in Q2,” July 24, 2026. newslink.mba.org
- National Association of Realtors, “Pending Home Sales Decreased 7.3% in September,” October 20, 2026. www.nar.realtor
Written by the AgentCOS News Desk in our own words from the sources above. Numbers are as published on the dates shown; publishers sometimes revise them later.