Pending home sales fall to a record low as 7% mortgage rates bite
Signed contracts on existing homes dropped 7.3% in September, pushing NAR's Pending Home Sales Index to its lowest level on record. Every region fell.
The numbers
Pending home sales, the count of signed contracts on existing homes, fell 7.3% in September 2026 to an index reading of 66.0, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported on October 20. That is the lowest level since NAR started the index in 2001. Contract signings were also down 11.3% from September 2025.
The drop lines up with the jump in mortgage rates. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average climbed from 6.76% in the second week of September to 7.28% on October 1 and 7.40% on October 8, its highest since November 2023. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun put it plainly: "Market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates."
Every region fell
| Region | From August | From a year earlier |
|---|---|---|
| Northeast | -4.2% | -9.4% |
| Midwest | -6.5% | -8.7% |
| South | -8.2% | -12.0% |
| West | -9.2% | -15.0% |
Source: NAR Pending Home Sales Index, September 2026, released October 20, 2026.
Why this number matters more than the sales number
Pending sales lead closed sales by one to two months, because most contracts take 30 to 60 days to close. September's existing-home sales actually rose 1.5% (NAR, October 13), but those closings came from contracts written in July and August, when rates were near 6.7%. September's contracts were written at 7% and up. That points to fewer closings in November and December.
Two things kept this from being a price story. NAR notes distressed sales are still scarce, and its September median sale price was $417,500, up 1.3% from a year earlier. Fewer contracts, so far, means slower sales, not falling national prices.
What to watch next
- Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey, every Thursday. Rates were flat at 7.40% on October 15.
- The Federal Reserve's meeting on October 27 and 28. The Fed raised its benchmark rate a quarter point on September 16, to 3.75% to 4%.
- NAR's October existing-home sales, scheduled for November 12, the first closings to fully reflect 7% rates.
What to tell your clients
Sellers: fewer buyers are writing offers, so the buyers who are left have choices. A listing priced for spring 2026 will sit. Price to what is pending and closing now, not to what sold in June.
Buyers: less competition means room to ask for things: a price cut, a seller-paid rate buydown, repairs or closing costs. In a record-slow month for contracts, a reasonable offer gets a real answer.
Your pipeline: if your contracts were written in late September or October, check that the buyer's rate lock and loan approval still hold at the new rate.
Today's numbers
Where the market stands now
The story above is dated October 21, 2026. These update on their own as the publishers release new data.
Questions
Quick answers
What are pending home sales?
Pending home sales count contracts signed on existing homes that have not closed yet. NAR turns them into an index where 100 equals the 2001 contract level. September 2026's reading was 66.0.
Do pending home sales predict closed sales?
Usually, by one to two months, because most contracts close in 30 to 60 days. A drop in September contracts points to fewer closings in November and December.
Why did pending home sales fall in September 2026?
Mostly mortgage rates. Freddie Mac's 30-year average rose from 6.76% in mid-September to 7.40% by October 8, which priced some buyers out and made others wait.
Sources
- National Association of Realtors, “Pending Home Sales Decreased 7.3% in September,” October 20, 2026. www.nar.realtor
- National Association of Realtors, “Existing-Home Sales Increased 1.5% in September, According to NAR Report,” October 13, 2026. www.nar.realtor
- Freddie Mac, “Primary Mortgage Market Survey, weekly history,” October 15, 2026. www.freddiemac.com
- Federal Reserve, “FOMC statement,” September 16, 2026. www.federalreserve.gov
Written by the AgentCOS News Desk in our own words from the sources above. Numbers are as published on the dates shown; publishers sometimes revise them later.