Moving again would cost the typical owner $1,136 more a month. How to work with locked-in sellers
Realtor.com's November 11 analysis puts a dollar figure on the lock-in effect: the typical owner pays $1,332 a month and would pay $2,468 to buy the median home today. That gap is why your sphere is not listing. It is also a conversation you can win with real numbers.
The numbers
If your past clients keep saying "we'd love to move, but not at these rates," Realtor.com just measured exactly what they mean. In an analysis released November 11, 2026, Realtor.com economists Danielle Hale and Hannah Jones estimate that the typical U.S. mortgage holder pays about $1,332 a month in principal and interest at a median rate of about 4.0%. Buying a median-priced home today, at a 7.32% rate, would cost about $2,468. That is $1,136 more every month, an 85.3% jump, and about 15.6 more percentage points of household income going to the mortgage.
For agents, this is the lock-in effect in one number. It explains thin listing inventory and slow move-up sales. It also tells you which conversations to have, because the gap shrinks fast once you plug in a real seller's equity.
How Realtor.com got to $1,136
| Realtor.com assumption, November 2026 | Number |
|---|---|
| Typical current payment (principal and interest) | $1,332 at about 4.0% |
| Median listing price, September 2026 | $419,250 |
| Typical down payment | 14.3% |
| Rate used for the new loan | 7.32%, 30-year fixed |
| Payment to buy the median home | $2,468 |
| Metros where the payment more than doubles | about one-third of the 100 largest |
The figures leave out property taxes and insurance, so the real monthly difference is larger in high-tax states. The current-payment estimate comes from fixed-rate, owner-occupied purchase and refinance loans made since 2013.
Would lower rates fix it?
Only partly. Realtor.com estimates each half-point drop in rates trims the payment by roughly $110 to $120. At 6%, the median home would cost about $2,154 a month, still 61.7% more than the typical current payment. At 5%, it would be about $1,929. Even back at 4%, buying the median home would cost about 29% more, because prices have climbed since most of those loans were made. So "wait for rates" does not unlock most sellers. A plan built on their equity does.
Where the gap is widest, and one local example
The biggest jumps are in Portland-South Portland, Maine (167.0%), San Jose (164.8%) and Los Angeles (161.9%). The smallest are in Pittsburgh (43.3%), Baltimore (45.0%) and Buffalo (46.1%). In Colorado, Realtor.com puts the Denver-Aurora-Centennial metro at $1,756 a month today versus $3,241 to buy again (84.6%), and Colorado Springs at $1,612 versus $2,912 (80.6%), both close to the national gap.
The equity math that changes the conversation
Realtor.com's buyer puts 14.3% down. Your move-up seller usually has far more than that coming from the sale. Same $419,250 home, same 7.32% rate, principal and interest only:
| Down payment on a $419,250 home at 7.32% | Monthly principal and interest |
|---|---|
| 14.3% (Realtor.com's typical buyer) | $2,468 |
| 20% | $2,304 |
| 30% | $2,016 |
| 40% | $1,728 |
| 50% | $1,440 |
A seller with half the price in equity is looking at about $108 a month more than the typical $1,332 payment, not $1,136. That is a very different conversation, and most sellers have never seen their own version of this table.
Other levers to put on the table
- Seller-paid buydowns on the purchase. On the median home with 14.3% down, a 2-1 buydown takes year one to about $2,000 and year two to about $2,229, and costs a seller roughly $8,500. Have the lender confirm the cost and how the buyer qualifies.
- Assumable loans. FHA and VA loans can be assumed with lender approval. A listing with a 3% or 4% assumable loan is worth marketing, and worth searching for when your buyer has the cash to cover the seller's equity.
- Buy before you sell. Bridge loans and buy-before-you-sell programs let an owner shop without a contingent offer. Costs vary, so compare them in writing.
- Downsizing. Owners trading down in price often see the gap shrink or disappear, especially with a large down payment.
None of this guarantees a client can or should move. It replaces a headline with their own numbers, and that is the conversation that leads to a listing.
What to tell your clients
Past clients who say "we're locked in": agree that it's real, then offer to run their numbers: their payoff, a realistic sale price, the down payment that leaves them, and the payment on the home they want. The $1,136 is an average. Their gap could be much smaller.
Move-up buyers waiting for rates: each half point is worth roughly $110 to $120 a month on the median home, per Realtor.com. Show them that and a seller-paid buydown side by side, instead of a forecast.
Sellers who need to move anyway (a job, a change in the household): lead with net proceeds and the payment with their equity down, not with today's rate.
A local example to share: The Kenna Group at Keller Williams DTC explains the buy-before-you-sell option for Colorado owners on kennarealestate.com, with the live Denver numbers on its Denver real estate statistics page. For homeowners, the Kenna News Desk walks through the same Denver and Colorado Springs numbers: what moving up costs a locked-in Denver owner.
Today's numbers
Where the market stands now
The story above is dated November 12, 2026. These update on their own as the publishers release new data.
Questions
Quick answers
How much more would it cost a typical homeowner to buy again?
About $1,136 a month in principal and interest, per Realtor.com's November 11, 2026 analysis: from $1,332 at a median rate of about 4.0% to $2,468 for a median-priced $419,250 home at 7.32% with 14.3% down.
Would 6% mortgage rates end the lock-in effect?
Not on their own. Realtor.com estimates the median home would cost about $2,154 a month at 6%, still 61.7% more than the typical current payment.
How does a bigger down payment change the gap?
A lot. On a $419,250 home at 7.32%, principal and interest is $2,468 with 14.3% down, $2,016 with 30% down and $1,440 with 50% down.
What is the payment gap in Denver?
Realtor.com puts the Denver-Aurora-Centennial metro at $1,756 a month for the typical current mortgage versus $3,241 to buy again, an 84.6% increase. Colorado Springs is $1,612 versus $2,912 (80.6%).
Sources
- Realtor.com, “Locked-in homeowners analysis, November 2026,” November 11, 2026. www.realtor.com
- Realtor.com via PR Newswire, “Buying a Median-Priced Home Would Cost Typical Mortgage Holders About $1,100 More a Month,” November 11, 2026. www.prnewswire.com
- Freddie Mac, “Primary Mortgage Market Survey (7.32%, October 22, 2026),” October 22, 2026. www.freddiemac.com
Written by the AgentCOS News Desk in our own words from the sources above. Numbers are as published on the dates shown; publishers sometimes revise them later.
